Oil, War, Uncertainty

Rising Middle East tensions and oil price spikes pose new risks for global markets. We, Simpan Asset Management, share our outlook on inflation, rate cuts, and emerging market resilience.

Markets shook after Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 led to retaliation and U.S. involvement. Iran’s symbolic vote to close the vital Strait of Hormuz sparked oil price spikes, raising fears of major supply disruptions, especially for China. Analysts warn prices could surge to $200–$300 a barrel in a worst-case scenario.

Impact on Risk Assets, Especially in Emerging Markets Like Indonesia

A ceasefire brokered by President Trump brought temporary relief. But with deep-rooted tensions and unresolved security concerns, the truce is fragile. If the conflict remains contained, market impact may be limited. But a broader escalation could bring inflationary pressures, delay rate cuts from BI and the Fed, and weigh on global growth—affecting risk assets, especially in Emerging Markets like Indonesia.

Simpan’s View: Staying Nimble, Staying Focused

We’re closely tracking developments while staying fully invested in our Sustainable Equity Fund and other core portfolios. Our approach remains conviction-led, long-term, and grounded in active risk management. In uncertain times, we remain focused on what matters most: disciplined execution and long-term value creation.