Hard Commodities Gain as Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Precious metals have seen strong gains in 2026. Here’s how we’re positioned.
It has not even been a full month since 2026 began, yet global markets have already seen a series of escalating geopolitical events. It started with the U.S. military-led capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, alongside plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Soon after, political demonstrations in Iran reignited tensions between the U.S. and Iran. More recently, markets were rattled by President Trump’s announcement of plans to invade Greenland, accompanied by threats to impose higher tariffs on Denmark and several other European nations. Global uncertainty is supporting demand for safe haven assets, keeping gold prices elevated.
How Did Markets React?
Major U.S. indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, have seen volatile trading, although their performance is still up YTD. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s equity market has not seen any material impact, with the JCI continuing to break record highs, up +6% YTD (as of January 20th, 2026).
In periods of heightened uncertainty, one question naturally comes to mind: Where should I invest my money?
Precious Metals Steal The Spotlight
During times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to rotate into precious metals such as gold and silver. They are largely regarded as “safe haven” assets, and tend to preserve value when risk appetite declines. In 2026, these metals have seen strong price performance, with silver seeing the largest gains (+29.9% YTD).
Several distinct factors have contributed to the recent rally across these commodities:
Gold & Silver: Demand has increased as investors seek safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and market volatility.
Nickel: Prices have been supported by supply expectations, particularly concerns around potential production cuts from major producers such as Indonesia.
Tin: Tin prices have climbed amid supply disruptions in Indonesia, partly driven by government crackdowns on illegal mining activities.
What Is Simpan Doing?
In Indonesia, there are a lot of commodity-linked stocks, many of which have benefited from the recent upswing in metal prices. Within Simpan’s funds, we identified this trend early.
We are heavily invested in EMAS, which provides direct exposure to gold, and TINS, where improving industry discipline, particularly efforts to address illegal mining, has strengthened the long-term outlook. Following the sharp price appreciation, we have trimmed a portion of these positions to lock in gains. That said, their weightings within our funds remain meaningful, reflecting our continued conviction in the broader theme.
At the same time, we are closely monitoring developments in nickel. While prices have risen, we remain patient and are watching for potential pullbacks, which could present more attractive entry points into selected names.